The arguing is getting nothing accomplished.
When it comes to hotshots, most of those I know who do it successfully do it with larger equipment. A single axle tractor is comparable to the cost of a diesel pickup and the operating expenses of the tractor will typically be much lower unless you are pulling around cheap rv’s.
On the exterior, rates look good in the hotshot market, but the silent killer is the very low amount of daily loaded miles and the high amount of deadhead miles.
Can it be profitable? Of course it can. Can you lose your shirt? Of course you can.
The true tell on this will be where you are at when the equipment dies on you. Will you have the profit set aside to replace that equipment. Or at least a big portion of it, or will you be diving off deep into debt to acquire more equipment?
As for the short haul vs long haul, either can be a good business model. With a dry van, unless I am just itching to run some long loads, I can always be more profitable with short hauls. I can get a much better rate per mile, stay in better market areas, and reduce wear/tear and fuel costs. You have to bid smart, though, because the rate must factor in your operating costs and expected profits. Bidding loads on the average market rate per mile will break you over time, just the same as running long haul for consistently low rate per mile numbers.