What am I missing? Why is that rate high?

[RedEgg]

I'm trying to gather as much information as I can to try and decide if quitting a very well paying but horrible job to go work for myself is a smart move. My instinct is that reefer trailer would be the best suited to my age and disposition. Also, I assume that without slinging chains in sub-zero weather, it's the best likely way to ensure work availability through economic downturns. I'm trying to get a feel for what's out there so I pay for the Doft loadboard app. Consistently, the best rates on any given day are around $8-$10/mile. Googling the national average, I see it's currently $2.97/mile, a little higher where I live in the midwest at $3.37/mile. What am I missing? Experience has taught me that things that seem too good to be true, generally are.

 

[389 Hood]

I can't help you on road work, I'm a local guy.

Good money is one thing, but if you are miserable, it's just not worth it sometimes.

 

[mndriver]

You’d be better off with a dry van.

@Mike went on his own with a dry van, I started with a van, went to reefer to step to flat. And then leased on to a company with my flat.

I would go back to a dry van if I went back to my own authority.

 

[Mike]

I'm trying to gather as much information as I can to try and decide if quitting a very well paying but horrible job to go work for myself is a smart move. My instinct is that reefer trailer would be the best suited to my age and disposition. Also, I assume that without slinging chains in sub-zero weather, it's the best likely way to ensure work availability through economic downturns. I'm trying to get a feel for what's out there so I pay for the Doft loadboard app. Consistently, the best rates on any given day are around $8-$10/mile. Googling the national average, I see it's currently $2.97/mile, a little higher where I live in the midwest at $3.37/mile. What am I missing? Experience has taught me that things that seem too good to be true, generally are.

Since this is your first post, welcome to the forum.

As for the rates you are mentioning, $8-10 is clearly the exception, not the rule. Also, if you are looking to get into business for yourself with a truck, DO NOT do it based on the rates you are currently seeing.

Right now, rates are high due to a very tight capacity (lack of trucks and drivers) and a supply chain that has been destroyed by covid lockdowns. The rates may go higher, and they may stay high for a while, nobody knows. In the past couple weeks, we have seen hints toward capacity relaxing a little, but we are also seeing covid cases rise and vaccine mandates being put into place that could push more drivers out of the workforce. It's anybody's guess as to what the next several months will hold.

One thing for sure, at some point, the supply chain is going to catch up to the point that we are overproducing which will decrease demand. That, and people will have to come back to work at some point. Both of these points will influence the current rates greatly.

I'm not saying don't do it, but don't be surprised to see rates either at $4.00/mile in a year, or $1.25/mile, depending on where we end up.

If you do buy a truck right now, pray it doesn't break down. A high number of owner ops are parked right now because, due to the supply chain, they can't get parts to fix their trucks. I'm talking drivers with truck and trailer payments who have been parked 2-3 months, and looking at potentially another 2-3 months before they get up and running. One tiny sensor can disable your business.

As for the best type of operation, that really depends on you. I've been under my own authority for 4 years with a dry van and only seen about 2-3 weeks when covid was shutting everything down where things go bad. There was still freight to be hauled, but rates were just in the tank, but that was for every sector of trucking. Flatbed took it the hardest, by far.

You can earn more per mile with a reefer, I would say around $0.30/mile or so on average than you can with dry van. That said, a reefer trailer will cost you more than 3 times what a dry van will cost you, and it won't last as long. In the end, not sure you net any better with a reefer. There is also additional fuel costs with a reefer, higher insurance, far more claims risk on your insurance, and far more time sitting at docks waiting to load or unload.

 

[RedEgg]

Mike, all of that is helpful and I've already found in my research that many echo your thoughts. I guess I didn't really ask my question right. I'm curious how, in a market where $3.37 is the average, does a load post on a load board available to anyone for $10/mile. I don't yet have a truck so I'm not registered with anyone. I suspect there's something involved in that load that's incredibly undesirable. I don't know, $800 in tolls, an almost certainty that you're going to wait even more excessively than is even normal for reefer drivers. A shipper/receiver that has an established history of trying to make unfair claims against carriers, something. I was curious if, in the veteran's experience, if there is almost always/usually/sometimes/rarely these type of hidden landmines whenever you see a rate offered that seems too good to be true or are carriers just so scarce right now that brokers can't find trucks even for great loads? Also, I can do a lot of mechanical stuff myself and I can learn anything but I really don't want to. If I do this, I will almost certainly buy new or very close to new equipment and try to replace it like the large carriers do before it starts killing me. I fully understand that downtime can kill me and I'm still assessing the likelihood of that happening. At the same time, nothing worth doing is risk free. All my projections will be based on the knowledge that my equipment payments will be very high. That's why it's very important that I fully understand what's happening and what could happen. The economy getting better is easy. Anyone can master making it with MORE money. I have to know how bad it might get. I think your argument about van/reefer might be moot for me. Given current availability, I may not be able to buy either one. I may not be able to find a new truck either. I do have faith that the chip shortage will work itself out. Demand has a way of increasing supply. It may not happen tomorrow but I'm betting (maybe everything) that it will happen in the next year or so.

 

[Mike]

Mike, all of that is helpful and I've already found in my research that many echo your thoughts. I guess I didn't really ask my question right. I'm curious how, in a market where $3.37 is the average, does a load post on a load board available to anyone for $10/mile. I don't yet have a truck so I'm not registered with anyone. I suspect there's something involved in that load that's incredibly undesirable. I don't know, $800 in tolls, an almost certainty that you're going to wait even more excessively than is even normal for reefer drivers. A shipper/receiver that has an established history of trying to make unfair claims against carriers, something. I was curious if, in the veteran's experience, if there is almost always/usually/sometimes/rarely these type of hidden landmines whenever you see a rate offered that seems too good to be true or are carriers just so scarce right now that brokers can't find trucks even for great loads? Also, I can do a lot of mechanical stuff myself and I can learn anything but I really don't want to. If I do this, I will almost certainly buy new or very close to new equipment and try to replace it like the large carriers do before it starts killing me. I fully understand that downtime can kill me and I'm still assessing the likelihood of that happening. At the same time, nothing worth doing is risk free. All my projections will be based on the knowledge that my equipment payments will be very high. That's why it's very important that I fully understand what's happening and what could happen. The economy getting better is easy. Anyone can master making it with MORE money. I have to know how bad it might get. I think your argument about van/reefer might be moot for me. Given current availability, I may not be able to buy either one. I may not be able to find a new truck either. I do have faith that the chip shortage will work itself out. Demand has a way of increasing supply. It may not happen tomorrow but I'm betting (maybe everything) that it will happen in the next year or so.

I will address this later this evening

 

[Electric Chicken]

Mike, all of that is helpful and I've already found in my research that many echo your thoughts. I guess I didn't really ask my question right. I'm curious how, in a market where $3.37 is the average, does a load post on a load board available to anyone for $10/mile. I don't yet have a truck so I'm not registered with anyone. I suspect there's something involved in that load that's incredibly undesirable. I don't know, $800 in tolls, an almost certainty that you're going to wait even more excessively than is even normal for reefer drivers. A shipper/receiver that has an established history of trying to make unfair claims against carriers, something. I was curious if, in the veteran's experience, if there is almost always/usually/sometimes/rarely these type of hidden landmines whenever you see a rate offered that seems too good to be true or are carriers just so scarce right now that brokers can't find trucks even for great loads? Also, I can do a lot of mechanical stuff myself and I can learn anything but I really don't want to. If I do this, I will almost certainly buy new or very close to new equipment and try to replace it like the large carriers do before it starts killing me. I fully understand that downtime can kill me and I'm still assessing the likelihood of that happening. At the same time, nothing worth doing is risk free. All my projections will be based on the knowledge that my equipment payments will be very high. That's why it's very important that I fully understand what's happening and what could happen. The economy getting better is easy. Anyone can master making it with MORE money. I have to know how bad it might get. I think your argument about van/reefer might be moot for me. Given current availability, I may not be able to buy either one. I may not be able to find a new truck either. I do have faith that the chip shortage will work itself out. Demand has a way of increasing supply. It may not happen tomorrow but I'm betting (maybe everything) that it will happen in the next year or so.

How many miles are those $8/10 ones and where are they going and how long is the wait time at the door, etc?

If it's a black hole with long waits and/or short miles it's going to be above average.

Average is average. You have high rates and low rates to get you to that $3.37. Average doesn't mean everything pays that.

I pull rail containers. We have some loads that pay $55/mile. We have other loads that pay under $2/mile. You don't get rich off either one because of what's involved.

 

[389 Hood]

Today is my 26th day with the truck parked because a of faulty DEF sensor. I'm liking it, but the truck owners are furious. I learned that mine is the 3rd one down due to the same issue.

 

[RedEgg]

How many miles are those $8/10 ones and where are they going and how long is the wait time at the door, etc?

If it's a black hole with long waits and/or short miles it's going to be above average.

Average is average. You have high rates and low rates to get you to that $3.37. Average doesn't mean everything pays that.

I pull rail containers. We have some loads that pay $55/mile. We have other loads that pay under $2/mile. You don't get rich off either one because of what's involved.

I pull rail containers too! I’m about to pull about 150 of them in fact.

 

[RedEgg]

Today is my 26th day with the truck parked because a of faulty DEF sensor. I'm liking it, but the truck owners are furious. I learned that mine is the 3rd one down due to the same issue.

I talked to a former boss who told me the same thing. Brand new trucks parked for parts. That’s my biggest fear. I’ll do everything in my power to learn before I spend a dime so I avoid expensive surprises. A brand new truck breaking down and being staying broke down for lack of parts IS something you can plan for but I don’t think my wallet, or even my credit limit, is that high. That’s a risk I’m still debating.

 

[Electric Chicken]

I talked to a former boss who told me the same thing. Brand new trucks parked for parts. That’s my biggest fear. I’ll do everything in my power to learn before I spend a dime so I avoid expensive surprises. A brand new truck breaking down and being staying broke down for lack of parts IS something you can plan for but I don’t think my wallet, or even my credit limit, is that high. That’s a risk I’m still debating.

I still have an old mechanical non-emissions truck sitting out back to fall back on if I need to. But they'd have to make an exception for me to use it here. They're on an everybody gets an ELD kick. And I'd have to throw some money at it.

 

[mndriver]

Now that I have a bit more time.

having worked the gamut from box to reefer to step to flat to 80’ flat stretch and even looking at RGN.

all those fancy trailers sure do pay some big bucks. But you’re also paying out some big purchase prices as well as extra overhead with permits, escorts etc. reefer has breakdown insurance, extra maintenance for the engine, finite life on the box due to water absorption. Just nature of that beast etc.

a straight box or flatbed will earn you just as much net as the others do for the most part and you will have plenty of time to do what you want.

I’ve had 4-5 months off this year so far for medical stuff either for me or family issues.

@Mike takes quite a bit of time off as well.

not saying the other stuff won’t make you money…

just that a straight dry van or a flatbed will give you a decent net profit keeping your nose clean . About as K.I.S.S. as it comes

 

[mndriver]

I talked to a former boss who told me the same thing. Brand new trucks parked for parts. That’s my biggest fear. I’ll do everything in my power to learn before I spend a dime so I avoid expensive surprises. A brand new truck breaking down and being staying broke down for lack of parts IS something you can plan for but I don’t think my wallet, or even my credit limit, is that high. That’s a risk I’m still debating.

Eh…

old trucks as well. Wiring harnesses, injectors, alternator etc.

it’s not just limited to new or emissions systems.

 

[Mike]

Mike, all of that is helpful and I've already found in my research that many echo your thoughts. I guess I didn't really ask my question right. I'm curious how, in a market where $3.37 is the average, does a load post on a load board available to anyone for $10/mile.

I have heard of this load board, but never looked at it. It's one of those that is supposed to be connecting carriers directly with shippers. In other words, the load board is the broker, because they are making money off the loads.

I was going to look at the rates, but not quite ready to throw in a credit card to see what they have. I was mainly wanting to see how you were able to see loads without your authority, and then I seen they have an account for individuals. I'm guessing you are not able to see contact info on the loads, otherwise, I would be very concerned about what kind of business they are operating.

As for the $10/mile loads, distance is usually the biggest factor here. It's not out of the ordinary for a short load to have a high rate per mile. Beyond that, you would need to get the details on the load, such as how much time are you going to be on the load. Is it a receiver unload, and if it requires a lumper, who is paying for it? How many stops? The multi stops usually aren't mentioned until you contact the broker. they like to get a rate out of you, then say "oh, it's got another quick drop", hoping you won't charge more.

Longer loads, they will typically be below the average, of course.

As for the national average, if you can negotiate decently, you should be able to stay above whatever that average is. I've stayed above the average since day 1. Occasionally get a load below average, but almost every load is above the average. Lots of people let the broker tell them what the load is going to pay, those people bring the average down.

Don't be average, LOL