Trucking jobs down for first time in nearly one year

[Mike]

Net transportation jobs are back up after February experienced the largest loss in more than two years.

The transport sector gained more than 7,000 jobs, as seven of 10 subsectors experienced increases. Trucking jobs, on the other hand, did not have a good March.

The truck transportation subsector experienced a loss of more than 1,000 jobs in March after the industry gained a modest 100 jobs in February and gained more than 4,000 in January. March marks the first monthly decrease since last April, when trucking lost 5,000 jobs. Numbers for March and February are preliminary.

Trucking jobs down for first time in nearly one year

 

[Mike]

Yet companies are continuing to expand their fleets, buying up trucks as fast as they can find them, especially small fleets.

 

[Mike]

Another article on the same subject...

Truckers Cut Payrolls As Freight Demand Softens

Trucking companies pulled back from hiring in March as freight demand softened and job growth across the logistics sector slowed.

Carriers cut payrolls by 1,200 jobs last month, according to preliminary figures the Labor Department reported Friday, halting a nearly yearlong expansion amid signs a hot streak that boosted transportation companies’ profits in 2018 is cooling.

Trucking company Covenant Transportation Group Inc. last month lowered its first-quarter profit forecast, citing weaker than expected freight volumes from late January through mid-March.

Truckers Cut Payrolls As Freight Demand Softens

 

[Electric Chicken]

How much of it is attributed to churn?

 

[Mike]

How much of it is attributed to churn?

This is a drop in payroll, not a cycling of drivers.

I talked about this a while back. Companies, particularly small companies are expanding like they are going to be the next big mega carrier. Some are doing it with used equipment, some are doing it with new equipment, both are doing it by increasing their business debt at a rapid pace.

Just like the guy who wanted to buy my truck, and I would have sold it to him had he been patient enough to wait a couple months to take ownership. He was willing to pay $95k for my used glider. He was looking for them everywhere and desperate to add trucks and hire before the end of 2018.

I just had lunch a couple weeks ago with the salesman I have been working with at Freightliner. Trucks are still sold before they arrive on their lot, both new and used. Meanwhile, the load to truck ratio gets worse and worse.

Nationwide, there are more trucks than loads, that is not a good number for the owner operator.

 

[Electric Chicken]

We've softened in our corner too but it's hard to tell how much is seasonal and how much is actually lower demand since they have far more drivers than ever.

 

[Electric Chicken]

This is a drop in payroll, not a cycling of drivers.

Churn might not be the word I should have used. I meant I wonder how many new people are quitting because they started as the slow season was coming and the money disappointed them.

The article headline "down for first time in nearly a year" points to seasonal slowdown.

We go through it every year here. People who haven't saved anything are struggling and some have to leave. The rest of us can ride it out.

 

[Mike]

The article headline "down for first time in nearly a year" points to seasonal slowdown.

We should be picking up right now, instead we are showing the appearance of slowing down. I'm looking at it from the spot market though, so we see it long before you guys really begin to feel it. At the same time, we rebound from it while you guys are still on the downhill slope.

This situation, though, I feel is 90% due to the increase in trucks out here fighting for the loads. A huge percentage of these folks are desperate, as well, which is making it really tough to manage good rates. Not really good rates, either, just decent enough to make a living and earn a little bit of profit.

 

[Electric Chicken]

We should be picking up right now, instead we are showing the appearance of slowing down. I'm looking at it from the spot market though, so we see it long before you guys really begin to feel it. At the same time, we rebound from it while you guys are still on the downhill slope.

This situation, though, I feel is 90% due to the increase in trucks out here fighting for the loads. A huge percentage of these folks are desperate, as well, which is making it really tough to manage good rates. Not really good rates, either, just decent enough to make a living and earn a little bit of profit.

Yeah it's the old story of supply and demand. Everyone got in because it was good. Now everyone's in and there are too many mouths to feed.

Our little department isn't immune to the overbuying and overhiring. We have way too many trucks to the point they're parked so close it's hard to get in and out of them.

 

[Mike]

So far, it hasn't forced me to change anything other than booking loads earlier than I used to. Until recently, I booked each load typically same day as I unloaded, or even after I unloaded. Now, I am trying to get them booked days in advance which seems to pay off.

Still spending the same amount of time at home.

If it gets worse, I will have to adjust, most likely by spending more time on the road.

 

[Electric Chicken]

Knock on wood and everything but my start time has been my saving grace. The train has been coming in right before I start so I'm getting fresh pickings. Usually.

 

[Rigjockey]

I think what we are seeing is the recession. Truckers always see it first with the drop in freight.
Sure everyone is piling on debt because they are looking at markets and the economy.
The problem is all those reports are about the latest quarter and are not current.
An exellent driver of a recession is personal and corporate debt.
JMO.

 

[Electric Chicken]

An exellent driver of a recession is personal and corporate debt.
JMO.

*Looks at Jeep, F150, and house*

Damn it's all my fault.