Truckload spot rates are finally moving in the right direction, but many truckers are finding that the improvement does not feel as good as the headlines make it sound. After a long stretch of weak freight, rates are rising again in several key segments. The problem is that diesel has surged so fast that a big part of those gains is being burned up before the load is ever delivered.
That is the tension in the market right now. On paper, spot rates are improving. In real life, margins are still getting squeezed.
DAT reported on March 17 that van and reefer spot rates posted their seventh straight monthly increase in February. The national average spot van rate climbed to $2.41 per mile. Reefer rose to $2.88. Flatbed reached $2.72. Contract rates also moved higher, and the spread between spot and contract van rates narrowed to its smallest gap since March 2022. That points to a market that is gradually tightening after a long downturn.
Under normal conditions, that would be a welcome sign for carriers. But fuel costs changed the story.
DAT said the national average price for on-highway diesel averaged $3.71 per gallon in February, up roughly 6 percent from January. Even that now looks tame compared with what happened in March. Spot freight is especially exposed because those rates are usually negotiated as all-in pricing. There is often no separate fuel surcharge to cushion a sudden jump at the pump. When diesel spikes, carriers in the spot market have to recover that cost in the rate itself or watch their margin disappear.
That is exactly what seems to be happening now.
Truckstop and FTR said a record diesel surge drove sharply stronger broker-posted spot rates in the week ended March 13. Total market broker-posted rates jumped 10.6 cents week over week, the biggest increase since late December 2022. But there is an important catch. Excluding a calculated fuel surcharge tied to the diesel shock, total spot rates actually fell by just under 5 cents from the week before. In other words, the headline increase did not represent a clean improvement in rate strength. Much of it was simply fuel recovery.
That matters because it changes how truckers should read the market. A rising rate environment sounds like a turnaround. But if that increase is mostly covering diesel, it does not automatically mean carriers are making better money. It may only mean they are losing money a little more slowly.
And diesel is still climbing. AAA’s national average for diesel reached $5.208 per gallon on March 21. That was up from $4.942 a week earlier and $3.705 a month ago. A move that sharp puts enormous pressure on owner-operators, small fleets, and any carrier hauling freight without strong fuel protection built into the rate.
This is why the current market feels so strange. There are real signs that the truckload cycle is improving. Rates are stronger. Capacity is tighter. The spread between spot and contract is narrowing. But diesel has become the spoiler. A carrier can book a load at a better number than last month and still come away feeling like nothing improved.
For brokers and shippers, this is where the conversation gets harder. Carriers are going to push for more money. Some already are. Not every broker will agree, but the logic is getting harder to ignore. If the rate does not reflect the new fuel reality, smaller carriers will either reject the freight, park equipment, or bleed cash trying to keep moving.
For truckers, the lesson is simple. Do not look at rising spot rates alone and assume the market is fixed. Look at the fuel side of the equation too. Right now, rates may be going up, but diesel is taking a big bite out of the recovery.
That is the tension in the market right now. On paper, spot rates are improving. In real life, margins are still getting squeezed.
DAT reported on March 17 that van and reefer spot rates posted their seventh straight monthly increase in February. The national average spot van rate climbed to $2.41 per mile. Reefer rose to $2.88. Flatbed reached $2.72. Contract rates also moved higher, and the spread between spot and contract van rates narrowed to its smallest gap since March 2022. That points to a market that is gradually tightening after a long downturn.
Under normal conditions, that would be a welcome sign for carriers. But fuel costs changed the story.
DAT said the national average price for on-highway diesel averaged $3.71 per gallon in February, up roughly 6 percent from January. Even that now looks tame compared with what happened in March. Spot freight is especially exposed because those rates are usually negotiated as all-in pricing. There is often no separate fuel surcharge to cushion a sudden jump at the pump. When diesel spikes, carriers in the spot market have to recover that cost in the rate itself or watch their margin disappear.
That is exactly what seems to be happening now.
Truckstop and FTR said a record diesel surge drove sharply stronger broker-posted spot rates in the week ended March 13. Total market broker-posted rates jumped 10.6 cents week over week, the biggest increase since late December 2022. But there is an important catch. Excluding a calculated fuel surcharge tied to the diesel shock, total spot rates actually fell by just under 5 cents from the week before. In other words, the headline increase did not represent a clean improvement in rate strength. Much of it was simply fuel recovery.
That matters because it changes how truckers should read the market. A rising rate environment sounds like a turnaround. But if that increase is mostly covering diesel, it does not automatically mean carriers are making better money. It may only mean they are losing money a little more slowly.
And diesel is still climbing. AAA’s national average for diesel reached $5.208 per gallon on March 21. That was up from $4.942 a week earlier and $3.705 a month ago. A move that sharp puts enormous pressure on owner-operators, small fleets, and any carrier hauling freight without strong fuel protection built into the rate.
This is why the current market feels so strange. There are real signs that the truckload cycle is improving. Rates are stronger. Capacity is tighter. The spread between spot and contract is narrowing. But diesel has become the spoiler. A carrier can book a load at a better number than last month and still come away feeling like nothing improved.
For brokers and shippers, this is where the conversation gets harder. Carriers are going to push for more money. Some already are. Not every broker will agree, but the logic is getting harder to ignore. If the rate does not reflect the new fuel reality, smaller carriers will either reject the freight, park equipment, or bleed cash trying to keep moving.
For truckers, the lesson is simple. Do not look at rising spot rates alone and assume the market is fixed. Look at the fuel side of the equation too. Right now, rates may be going up, but diesel is taking a big bite out of the recovery.
