Probability basis for prepping

Fageol

Old acid hauler but not too caustic
I don't recall how I got this: The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper

The author, a hydrologist, makes a simple mathematical case for prepping. And since hydrologists are constantly aware of floods and the probabilities of floods, I find that he has something akin to experience in dealing with a zombie apocalypse equivalent. I sent this article to my buddy in Kiev (he was raised not far from Berkeley where I met him) who has a Statistics Ph.D. With a little luck, he'll get back to me about the math and concept. I'll give a heads-up when I get it.

At about 67 years-old my friend moved to Ukraine just to avoid prepping for what he sees as the collapse of this country (or any country in which its leaders kick the financial can down the road instead of getting a grip on spending). So he is sympathetic to the notion of preparedness. But he's always been brutally honest as only a math whiz can be.

Regardless, we live in interesting times. Guess I should become a regular at the indoor range 30 miles from here (in Palmer AK) with the added benefit if a nice American Legion Post a couple of miles away. One of the things I miss about running back and forth between Anchorage and Fairbanks is the wide open spaces between mile 196 of the George Parks Highway and Cantwell. While waiting for another driver or just stretching legs, there was plenty of space to blaze away.84atSwitch.JPGCIMG0310.JPG
 
i don't see the use of prepping. once anyone survives any apocalyptic event, the survivors will be out looking for food, and if they know you, and that you prepped, you will be inundated with attacks....

people gotta get off this prepping bullshit, if the ground is HOT from radiation or a so-called zombie attack, that survivor will not live long after his supplies run out.......

plus too.....stop watching all those movies about such apocalyptic attacks.....and watch more love stories, and comedies, and Married With Children reruns....
 
I'd rather just be vaporized while sipping coffee and gnawing on my breakfast toast.

After all, you are what you eat...
i'd rather be vaporized while trying to pass a kidney stone...

that'll teach them bastoidavitches from bothering me.....
 
I don't recall how I got this: The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper

The author, a hydrologist, makes a simple mathematical case for prepping. And since hydrologists are constantly aware of floods and the probabilities of floods, I find that he has something akin to experience in dealing with a zombie apocalypse equivalent. I sent this article to my buddy in Kiev (he was raised not far from Berkeley where I met him) who has a Statistics Ph.D. With a little luck, he'll get back to me about the math and concept. I'll give a heads-up when I get it.

At about 67 years-old my friend moved to Ukraine just to avoid prepping for what he sees as the collapse of this country (or any country in which its leaders kick the financial can down the road instead of getting a grip on spending). So he is sympathetic to the notion of preparedness. But he's always been brutally honest as only a math whiz can be.

Regardless, we live in interesting times. Guess I should become a regular at the indoor range 30 miles from here (in Palmer AK) with the added benefit if a nice American Legion Post a couple of miles away. One of the things I miss about running back and forth between Anchorage and Fairbanks is the wide open spaces between mile 196 of the George Parks Highway and Cantwell. While waiting for another driver or just stretching legs, there was plenty of space to blaze away.View attachment 47135View attachment 47136
Did I read that right? Your buddy with a PHD in statistics moved to the Ukraine to avoid prepping?
Is he good at his job? What odds did he place on Russia annexing the Ukraine's Crimea?
I would say that prepping was expedited in Ukraine years before Alaska.
 
Did I read that right? Your buddy with a PHD in statistics moved to the Ukraine to avoid prepping?
Is he good at his job? What odds did he place on Russia annexing the Ukraine's Crimea?
I would say that prepping was expedited in Ukraine years before Alaska.
probably added when he should have subtracted
 
Did I read that right? Your buddy with a PHD in statistics moved to the Ukraine to avoid prepping?
Is he good at his job? What odds did he place on Russia annexing the Ukraine's Crimea?
I would say that prepping was expedited in Ukraine years before Alaska.
Possession of advanced academic degrees does not necessarily indicate a mediocum of common sense is possessed by the fool...

:toothpick:
 
If you're going to just happily accept your sheepish fate vs preparing, why are you even posting in here? It makes zero sense and just highlights your need to hear/read yourself versus actually adding in a measurable manner to a conversation.

Specifically you, @GAnthony

You're in here all the frigging time WHYSHOULDYOUPREP YOULLLGETSHOT

Guess what, preps have helped me get where I am today versus you and versus the public/environment. Rather be hanging around the house fixing things than being in the government cheese line, or already evacuated with supplies to go anywhere rather than waiting for help to get me out of somewhere. How many people are still missing from the Camp Fire in CA, and how many got stuck in disaster shelters rather than, oh I don't know, packing up earlier and going twice as far as the next family to where the hotels or campgrounds aren't full?

Prepping isn't all about the absolute worst case scenario which is TEOTWAWKI, that will probably never happing. What will happen is all the shit inbetween and if you aren't ready for that stuff, your daddy failed you and you're honestly failing your family to boot.
 
If you're going to just happily accept your sheepish fate vs preparing, why are you even posting in here? It makes zero sense and just highlights your need to hear/read yourself versus actually adding in a measurable manner to a conversation.

Specifically you, @GAnthony

You're in here all the frigging time WHYSHOULDYOUPREP YOULLLGETSHOT

Guess what, preps have helped me get where I am today versus you and versus the public/environment. Rather be hanging around the house fixing things than being in the government cheese line, or already evacuated with supplies to go anywhere rather than waiting for help to get me out of somewhere. How many people are still missing from the Camp Fire in CA, and how many got stuck in disaster shelters rather than, oh I don't know, packing up earlier and going twice as far as the next family to where the hotels or campgrounds aren't full?

Prepping isn't all about the absolute worst case scenario which is TEOTWAWKI, that will probably never happing. What will happen is all the **** inbetween and if you aren't ready for that stuff, your daddy failed you and you're honestly failing your family to boot.
when the end comes, it comes, no one will want to live thru all the diseases, and hunger, no water, and either morbidly hot or cold temps. your supplies will run out, that is a FACT.

prepping makes no sense. your life will either come to an end by you blowing out your brains with your last bullet, or someone slaying you for what you got.

and finally, i got just as much every right to post in here, as anyone else...
 
when the end comes, it comes, no one will want to live thru all the diseases, and hunger, no water, and either morbidly hot or cold temps. your supplies will run out, that is a FACT.

prepping makes no sense. your life will either come to an end by you blowing out your brains with your last bullet, or someone slaying you for what you got.

and finally, i got just as much every right to post in here, as anyone else...

Then why don't you just end it now? I mean, the end is coming no matter what you do, why bother?

Everyone dies, you brilliant son of a gun. The whole point of existance is to flip the bird at the grim reaper for as long as you can. You're just too thick to understand it.

Diseases, hunger, no water, temps?

Umm, the whole point of prepping is to not have that be an issue. And as for someone slaying me? 2 nations armies didn't take me down, I don't see it being a technical issue surviving 'round here. They were both hell of a lot smarter than you.
 
Then why don't you just end it now? I mean, the end is coming no matter what you do, why bother?

Everyone dies, you brilliant son of a gun. The whole point of existance is to flip the bird at the grim reaper for as long as you can. You're just too thick to understand it.

Diseases, hunger, no water, temps?

Umm, the whole point of prepping is to not have that be an issue. And as for someone slaying me? 2 nations armies didn't take me down, I don't see it being a technical issue surviving 'round here. They were both hell of a lot smarter than you.
sooner or later your supplies will run out, you will die a slow agonizing death.....

the zombies will get you, and eat your brains.
 
sooner or later your supplies will run out, you will die a slow agonizing death.....

the zombies will get you, and eat your brains.
So the supplies run out, do you really think that people didn't survive before there was somebody else there to take care of them?

Of Mice and Men, I shall choose to be a man!
 

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