Mike
Well-Known Member
SAN DIEGO ---- Trucking activity declined in March in California as worries about rising diesel fuel prices and a sluggish state economy continued to outpace the rest of the nation, according to an economic index released Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the index showed that trucking activity in all of the United States has rebounded to its highest level since the summer of 2008, when the nation was mired in its biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression.
"I don't have a great handle on California. California got into this earlier than the rest of the country, and it got out earlier," said Ed Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. "We are kind of bouncing along with growth, but nothing exceptional."
Leamer speculated that some of California's inability to climb out of its doldrums may be because of truckers driving fewer miles in California, or filling up outside the state where prices are lower.
"The trucking industry is working hard to improve efficiencies. Some of it has to do with the equipment they operate, and the routes that they are driving are more efficient," he said.
California has seen higher diesel prices than the rest of the country.
The state faced average diesel prices of $4.526 a gallon this week versus $4.285 a month ago, and $3.262 a year ago, according to the AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report. In the United States, average diesel prices were $4.096 a gallon this week versus $3.925 a month ago, and $3.055 a year ago.
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index is a measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers. It measures diesel fuel purchases at 7,000 truck stops nationwide. The index showed that the Pacific Coast (California, Oregon and Washington) rose to 103.68 in March, up 1.5 points from 102.18 in February, putting it on an even keel with December's index reading of 103.7.
However, the index for California alone ---- broken out from the broader Pacific Coast index ---- fell to 104.34 in March, down 1.17 points from 105.51 in February. The index in California has fallen 3.66 points since November, when the index hit its peak in 2010 at 108.009.
The index, which examines nine U.S. Census regions, has shown steady growth since the fall, Leamer said.
Nationally, the index rose 2.53 points to 96.47 in March from February's 93.94. The March index is the highest level of trucking activity since the index's 95.59 in July 2008.
Overall, the index shows that the country's economy is expanding even though growth is relatively flat, Leamer said. Different forecasts put economic growth between 2 and 5.5 percent in 2011. GDP is often considered an indicator of a country's standard of living.
"The jury is still out on the future," Leamer said.
He explained that not enough jobs are being created at a monthly clip of 150,000 to 200,000 ---- as has been the case in the past few months.
"We'd need to get payrolls well above 200,000 a month to have exceptional payroll growth. We lost 7 (million) to 8 million jobs in the recession," he said. "The risk of a downturn happening again was never significant, but the labor market still has a long way to improve."
Before the index readings started pushing back above 100 for California in 2010, the previous peak had been 104.04 in May 2007, just as the economy was diving into the recession. The index fell to its lowest point, 87.86, in May 2008, Leamer said.
The index, which is based on seasonally adjusted economic data, is put together monthly by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corp., which handles credit card transactions on fuel purchases by truckers.
Leamer's index equaled 100 in 2007, its base year. The base year was recently readjusted from 2002 because of recalculations made in industrial production.
(Source: North County Times)
Meanwhile, the index showed that trucking activity in all of the United States has rebounded to its highest level since the summer of 2008, when the nation was mired in its biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression.
"I don't have a great handle on California. California got into this earlier than the rest of the country, and it got out earlier," said Ed Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. "We are kind of bouncing along with growth, but nothing exceptional."
Leamer speculated that some of California's inability to climb out of its doldrums may be because of truckers driving fewer miles in California, or filling up outside the state where prices are lower.
"The trucking industry is working hard to improve efficiencies. Some of it has to do with the equipment they operate, and the routes that they are driving are more efficient," he said.
California has seen higher diesel prices than the rest of the country.
The state faced average diesel prices of $4.526 a gallon this week versus $4.285 a month ago, and $3.262 a year ago, according to the AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report. In the United States, average diesel prices were $4.096 a gallon this week versus $3.925 a month ago, and $3.055 a year ago.
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index is a measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers. It measures diesel fuel purchases at 7,000 truck stops nationwide. The index showed that the Pacific Coast (California, Oregon and Washington) rose to 103.68 in March, up 1.5 points from 102.18 in February, putting it on an even keel with December's index reading of 103.7.
However, the index for California alone ---- broken out from the broader Pacific Coast index ---- fell to 104.34 in March, down 1.17 points from 105.51 in February. The index in California has fallen 3.66 points since November, when the index hit its peak in 2010 at 108.009.
The index, which examines nine U.S. Census regions, has shown steady growth since the fall, Leamer said.
Nationally, the index rose 2.53 points to 96.47 in March from February's 93.94. The March index is the highest level of trucking activity since the index's 95.59 in July 2008.
Overall, the index shows that the country's economy is expanding even though growth is relatively flat, Leamer said. Different forecasts put economic growth between 2 and 5.5 percent in 2011. GDP is often considered an indicator of a country's standard of living.
"The jury is still out on the future," Leamer said.
He explained that not enough jobs are being created at a monthly clip of 150,000 to 200,000 ---- as has been the case in the past few months.
"We'd need to get payrolls well above 200,000 a month to have exceptional payroll growth. We lost 7 (million) to 8 million jobs in the recession," he said. "The risk of a downturn happening again was never significant, but the labor market still has a long way to improve."
Before the index readings started pushing back above 100 for California in 2010, the previous peak had been 104.04 in May 2007, just as the economy was diving into the recession. The index fell to its lowest point, 87.86, in May 2008, Leamer said.
The index, which is based on seasonally adjusted economic data, is put together monthly by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corp., which handles credit card transactions on fuel purchases by truckers.
Leamer's index equaled 100 in 2007, its base year. The base year was recently readjusted from 2002 because of recalculations made in industrial production.
(Source: North County Times)