Are you making hay? How Long Will It Last? A Lesson In Trucking

[Electric Chicken]

I am not complaining.

The new deal is getting me more funds and less work to get it.

You and FDR got somepin somepin secret goin on?

 

[mndriver]

You and FDR got somepin somepin secret goin on?

If I told ya.....

 

[mndriver]

Seems like things came to a holiday skid. Like the brokers are going to try and make back a nickel or four for the dimes they’ve been forced to let loose.

 

[mndriver]

Friday I get a call for a load...

“$4000 to go to Rochester NY..

Return load is paying $4000 to Minnesota....”

Guess who’s going to Rochester...

Guy asked me if I wanted to do it again over new year’s weekend too. Told him I needed the “MRS” fee to do that one.

“What’s that run?”

Told him she normally demands $10,000 per day gone or family plans screwed with. Since this involves four days, $40,000.

He laughed. “Gotcha, good woman.”

I made as much 3rd and 4th quarter as a typical year running my own authority.

I posted a link to an article talking about 2021 looking at keeping pace. I get a couple of other email newsletters that share the same outlook. Cass index is one of them.

 

[Fageol]

Friday I get a call for a load...

“$4000 to go to Rochester NY..

Return load is paying $4000 to Minnesota....”

Guess who’s going to Rochester...

Guy asked me if I wanted to do it again over new year’s weekend too. Told him I needed the “MRS” fee to do that one.

“What’s that run?”

Told him she normally demands $10,000 per day gone or family plans screwed with. Since this involves four days, $40,000.

He laughed. “Gotcha, good woman.”

I made as much 3rd and 4th quarter as a typical year running my own authority.

I posted a link to an article talking about 2021 looking at keeping pace. I get a couple of other email newsletters that share the same outlook. Cass index is one of them.

Has anybody on this site or elsewhere attempted to integrate or just relate the Cass and Baltic indices (particularly the dry index) and come up with some notion about the direction of transportation costs?

 

[Duck]

Has anybody on this site or elsewhere attempted to integrate or just relate the Cass and Baltic indices (particularly the dry index) and come up with some notion about the direction of transportation costs?

Has anybody on this site or elsewhere attempted to translate this post into English?

 

[Electric Chicken]

Has anybody on this site or elsewhere attempted to translate this post into English?

Yes and failed.

 

[mndriver]

Has anybody on this site or elsewhere attempted to integrate or just relate the Cass and Baltic indices (particularly the dry index) and come up with some notion about the direction of transportation costs?

Go read my last paragraph again.

 

[Fageol]

Has anybody on this site or elsewhere attempted to translate this post into English?

Go read my last paragraph again.

I read that you're interested in where your money is coming from and that you consider the Cass index as giving you a clue about future revenue. Since the US imports a lot of goods (and exports a lot of services) all I did was ask if anybody is watching a long-time ocean freight and (recent) airfreight index of rates and tying it to the index you cited. I doubt if that's controversial.

 

[Mike]

I posted a link to an article talking about 2021 looking at keeping pace. I get a couple of other email newsletters that share the same outlook. Cass index is one of them.

It's funny, because the projections are all over the place right now regarding 2021.

Freight volume should grow as more businesses open up, and those that are open get close to full production/staff.

Trucking schools will be opening up and filling classrooms to capacity as well.

I ordered my truck in November and got a January 11th delivery date. A week later, ordering a truck from Freightliner would get you a delivery date of late May or June, so once again folks are expanding fleets based on 2020 numbers, just as they were doing in 2018 and into 2019 based on great rates.

Me? I'm just gonna go make hay again in 2021 while it is out there to make, and store it up for if/when things come crashing down.

Beyond "making hay", the key will be to watch real-time indicators out here with the freight rates and volumes in various areas, and adjust the operating area as needed if/when things begin to shift.

2021 could be the best year yet, could be the worst since the 2008 era. I think it has an equal chance of doing either one.

 

[mndriver]

I read that you're interested in where your money is coming from and that you consider the Cass index as giving you a clue about future revenue. Since the US imports a lot of goods (and exports a lot of services) all I did was ask if anybody is watching a long-time ocean freight and (recent) airfreight index of rates and tying it to the index you cited. I doubt if that's controversial.

Go read the VERY LAST sentence....

Then the question you asked...

 

[mndriver]

It's funny, because the projections are all over the place right now regarding 2021.

Freight volume should grow as more businesses open up, and those that are open get close to full production/staff.

Trucking schools will be opening up and filling classrooms to capacity as well.

I ordered my truck in November and got a January 11th delivery date. A week later, ordering a truck from Freightliner would get you a delivery date of late May or June, so once again folks are expanding fleets based on 2020 numbers, just as they were doing in 2018 and into 2019 based on great rates.

Me? I'm just gonna go make hay again in 2021 while it is out there to make, and store it up for if/when things come crashing down.

Beyond "making hay", the key will be to watch real-time indicators out here with the freight rates and volumes in various areas, and adjust the operating area as needed if/when things begin to shift.

2021 could be the best year yet, could be the worst since the 2008 era. I think it has an equal chance of doing either one.

I spent 2019/2020 prepping a truck and getting it solid to make money.

The markets are turning around like 2018 and people, I think, are basing the future on a recent window that was very robust. Too much risk right now to make that leap.

Make hay? Yes.

Invest in more capital equipment? Not for a long time.

For me the plan is reduce debt and overhead as quickly as possible.

Just got a call asking if I’d considered going into a step deck or rgn. I honestly can’t unless the right deal came up on the right trailer. The rates are not supporting that move or tying up cash in a second trailer.

I see the next 18-24 months continuing on so long as we continue to have a lame duck government.

 

[Electric Chicken]

I'm just gonna do what I can to pay myself back for the truck then get rid of the mortgage.

After that, I don't think I'll have too many worries.

 

[Ronnie Mildew]

Pullin cans outta the ports in Georgia ha been good to me this year. Im been busy after a lil slow down back this summer. From what I hear 2021 is gonna be another strong year fo us down here workin the ports and railyards.

 

[Humble pie]

Pullin cans outta the ports in Georgia ha been good to me this year. Im been busy after a lil slow down back this summer. From what I hear 2021 is gonna be another strong year fo us down here workin the ports and railyards.

You pulling out of Garden city or down in Brunswick?

 

[Ronnie Mildew]

You pulling out of Garden city or down in Brunswick?

I been pullin outta Garden City, runnin up to the ATL and sometimes bring an empty back outta CSX yard up there,I don get down to Brunswick much cause they keep me popping outta Savannah